Australian EV Policy - Part 2 - Journey to Zero Carbon

In part 1 of this blog (1) we found that Australia has a very low electric vehicle (EV) penetration rate of 0.03% (% of EVs in the light vehicle fleet). This compares with rates of 0.3 – 0.5% in most developed economies, including Canada and the US which are probably the most comparable in terms of long distance travel.

The Labor Party recently announced a new EV target: 50% of new car sales to be EVs by 2030 which would presumably move Australia up the global EV league table. The Liberals, despite having some nascent EC policies themselves, are now claiming it will cause all sorts of bad outcomes. The Greens, on the other hand, decry it as timid and insufficient.

So what medium term EV policies should a reasonable person expect from our state and federal Governments given that, as those familiar with UNIPCC recommendations (2,3) will know, a significant global increase in EVs is basically inevitable as we decarbonise.

Australia no longer has an automotive manufacturing industry so ultimately the rest of the world will dictate what vehicles are available and what we will need to pay for them.

This reality probably sets the minimum policy requirement – prepare the country for a scenario in which EVs become the low cost option and public demand swings sharply in this direction. Last year 2.5% of global new vehicle sales were plugins. If the current 80% annual growth in EVs continues for a few years it won’t be long before EV policy becomes a matter of public attention.

The two key EV policy issues will be subsidies and inducements for vehicle owners and the provision of battery charging infrastructure. For suburbanites with regular, short commutes and available off street vehicle parking, the need for generous subsidies and help with infrastructure is likely to be pretty low. Other potential EV owners will need assistance – for example on street charging for vehicle owners in higher density areas and encouragement for landlords and body corporates to retrofit high voltage wiring in older apartment blocks.

While working with state and local governments on inner city and highrise charging infrastructure will be challenging enough, the work needed to allow EVs to travel easily to regional centres and remote locations is likely to be an even tougher and most expensive hurdle.

Widespread EV adoption for long distance travel will require recharging times matching the 10 minutes that it takes to fill a petrol tank on virtually any road in Australia. The current “fast” charging stations, which appear to cost about $25 – 50,000 each, are rated at 50 – 100 kw. At these stations future EV’s with a 500 km range (up from a current 350 km) will take 1-2 hours (assuming no wait time) to receive a full recharge. The emerging “ultra fast” charging technology is rated at 350 kw (above the limit for many current EVs) is necessary to get times down to something like 10 minutes. 350kw technology is being implemented in Australia and the federal government (yes, the one that doesn’t like the ALP policy) contributed to the $15 million needed to build 21 “ultra fast” charging stations (2 x 150KW outlets/station, upgradable to 350kw) across Australia. At about $750,000/station each these things are expensive (3) and assuming limited queuing can only service perhaps 150 vehicles/day. Based on 15,000 vehicles/day on the Hume Highway all needing a recharge or two, we will need a lot more than $15 million to electrify Sydney to Melbourne road traffic. And what about traffic between other capital cities and between major regional centres and to slightly more out of the way locations (central Australia for example)?

So with high cost, ultra fast charging being necessary for broad EV adoption, who will pay for the thousands of units needed on major Australian highways? Who will own and run these facilities in a way that gives a fair return without gouging drivers? How will these facilities be justified in remote locations with limited traffic? Who will make sure that remote communities (which often means indigenous communities) are not excluded from the benefits of improved EV technology?

Or will government dollars (our dollars) be spent on free parking and cheap vehicle rego for voters in swing suburban and inner city electorates?